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Dr Mike Hunter's avatar

Many experts favour risk-prediction models instead of blunt pack-year cutoffs.

Pack-years are useful, but increasingly seen as an outdated shortcut rather than the best tool.

Taj Rahman MD's avatar

Excellent point. Packs years as you know is clunky and subject to recall bias.

There's emerging evidence that PLCOm2012 model improves sensitivity and reduces disparities across racial/ethnic groups. NCCN and CHEST have both encouraged use.

Interestingly, there is another school of thought (and emerging literature) to go with just smoking years/durstion- proposing 20 years, rather than 20 pack years as screening eligibility.

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